ACRE$5.09
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Powered by LiveAIOverall Analysis
HoldAres Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) presents a mixed investment profile. While its dividend yield is attractive and it operates within the essential real estate sector, recent performance, negative EPS, and volatile revenue figures indicate significant headwinds. Technical indicators suggest a currently bearish sentiment, though some short-term moving averages show upward momentum. The company's high debt levels and the broader interest rate environment warrant careful consideration.
Thematic
While real estate is a fundamental sector, ACRE's specific focus on commercial real estate loans faces headwinds from interest rate sensitivity and economic uncertainty. The shift to remote work and evolving commercial property needs present ongoing thematic challenges.
Fundamental
ACRE's fundamentals are mixed. While revenue has shown some recent positive quarterly trends after a significant decline, profitability remains a concern with negative EPS and net margins. Debt levels are high, and free cash flow has been inconsistent. The attractive dividend yield is a key positive, but its sustainability is questionable given profitability challenges.
Technical
Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend. The stock is trading below key longer-term moving averages, and momentum indicators are mixed, with some showing overbought conditions on shorter timeframes but generally weak overall. The RSI is in neutral territory, but the overall trend appears downward.
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Real Estate Market Dynamics | 40 |
| Interest Rate Sensitivity | 30 |
| Dividend Sustainability | 70 |
| Diversification of Real Estate Assets | 50 |
| Regulatory Environment (REIT Status) | 60 |
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 60 |
| Profitability | 20 |
| Growth | 30 |
| Balance Sheet Health | 30 |
| Cash Flow | 50 |
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Trend Analysis | 30 |
| Momentum | 50 |
| Volume Confirmation | 40 |
| Support & Resistance | 50 |
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Powered by LiveAIBullish Points (6)
Positive Short-Term Momentum
The stock price increased by 1.53% to $4.66, with a positive post-market movement of -0.04%. The 5-day performance shows a gain of 2.42%.
Potentially Undervalued
The P/S ratio for 2023 was 3.1, and for 2022 was 2.4, suggesting a potential for undervaluation if revenue returns to prior levels. The Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio for 2024 is negative (-20.0) due to negative revenue, which warrants further investigation.
Bearish Points (8)
Negative Earnings and Declining Revenue
Recent EPS figures are significantly negative (e.g., -0.20 in Q1 2025, -0.11 in Q4 2024, -0.73 in Q1 2024). Annual revenue for 2024 was reported as negative (-$15.23M), and net income for TTM is -$7.2M, indicating significant profitability challenges.
High Price-to-Sales Ratio on Positive Revenue
The P/S ratio for 2023 was 3.1, and for 2022 was 2.4. While these might seem reasonable, they are juxtaposed with recent negative earnings and revenue, suggesting the company's valuation may not be justified by current operational performance.
Calendar
June 2025
30
Ex-Dividend Date
July 2025
15
Next Dividend Date
August 2025
5
Next Earnings Date
H: $0.13
A: $0.02
L: $-0.24
H: 15.00M
A: 13.85M
L: 12.50M
Profile
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation, a specialty finance company, engages in originating and investing in commercial real estate (CRE) loans and related investments in the United States. It provides loan opportunities for the owners, operators, and sponsors of CRE properties. The company's investments includes senior mortgage loans, subordinate debt, preferred equity products, mezzanine loans, and other CRE investments, including commercial mortgage-backed securities. It has elected and qualified to be taxed as a real estate investment trust for the United States federal income tax purposes under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986. Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.
Seasonals
Price Target
5.08 USD
The 39 analysts offering 1 year price forecasts for ACRE have a max estimate of 5.50 and a min estimate of 4.80.
Debt Level and Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Ownership
Capital Structure
Valuation - Summary
Valuation - Ratios
Revenue to Profit Conversion
Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Cash Flow
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