NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) presents a mixed investment profile. Fundamentally, the company shows steady revenue and improving profitability. However, its current valuation metrics are elevated, and technical indicators suggest a bearish short-term trend. Thematic alignment with natural/organic groceries is positive but may face intense competition.
NGVC operates within the growing natural and organic grocery sector, benefiting from increasing consumer demand for healthier and sustainable products. However, the competitive landscape is intense with large national chains and smaller specialty stores.
NGVC demonstrates consistent revenue growth and improving net profit margins, indicating effective cost management and pricing strategies. The balance sheet is manageable, though debt levels are substantial relative to cash. Dividend yield is modest.
NGVC is experiencing a short-term downtrend, trading below key moving averages and showing bearish signals across several technical indicators. The 52-week range indicates a significant drop from its highs.
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Natural & Organic Food Trends | 80 |
| Competitive Landscape | 65 |
| Customer Loyalty & Brand Recognition | 70 |
| Supply Chain & Sourcing | 85 |
| Economic Sensitivity | 75 |
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 55 |
| Profitability | 65 |
| Growth | 60 |
| Balance Sheet Health | 50 |
| Cash Flow | 70 |
| Dividend | 55 |
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Trend Analysis | 40 |
| Momentum | 50 |
| Volume Confirmation | 50 |
| Support & Resistance | 55 |
| Earnings Surprise | 65 |
Positive Earnings Surprises
The company has exceeded EPS estimates in 4 out of the last 6 reported quarters, with surprises ranging from -40.0% to +106.67%. The most recent quarter showed a positive surprise of 30.0%.
Improving Valuation Metrics
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio on a trailing twelve months (TTM) basis is 28.5, while the projected P/E for 2024 is 19.9, suggesting potential for multiple expansion as earnings are anticipated to grow.
Elevated Quarterly P/E Ratio
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for Q1 2025 is projected at 70.3, and for Q4 2024 at 91.3, which are significantly higher than the TTM P/E of 28.5, suggesting potential overvaluation based on near-term expectations.
Slowing Revenue Growth Trend
While annual revenue has grown from $1.05 billion in 2021 to $1.24 billion in 2024 (Q3), the quarterly net margin has fluctuated, reaching 3.9% in Q1 2025 but was as low as 2.0% in Q3 2023, indicating pressure on profitability.
May 2025
27
Ex-Dividend Date
June 2025
11
Next Dividend Date
August 2025
8
Next Earnings Date
H: $
A: $
L: $
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; private label repackaged bulk products, including dried fruits, nuts, grains, granolas, teas, herbs, and spices, as well as peanut and almond butters; private label products comprising grocery staples, household products, bulk foods, and vitamins and dietary supplements, as well as organic eggs, organic flavored coffee, and organic mustard; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide name-brand supplements, as well as private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers; and books and handouts. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers, Vitamin Cottage, Health Hotline, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark, as well as Vitamin Cottage Natural Grocers and Health Hotline trademarks. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. The company was formerly known as Vitamin Cottage Natural Food Markets, Inc. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.