AAP$50.245
$50.22
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Powered by LiveAIOverall Analysis
HoldAdvance Auto Parts exhibits mixed signals. Fundamentally, the company faces significant headwinds with recent losses and a high debt load. While past performance shows volatility, current technicals indicate a bearish trend. Thematic exposure to automotive aftermarket is neutral to slightly negative due to economic uncertainties.
Thematic
The automotive aftermarket sector is generally stable but can be cyclical, influenced by economic conditions and consumer spending on vehicle maintenance and repair. Advance Auto Parts' strategy to serve both professional installers and DIY customers provides some diversification, but competitive pressures and changing consumer habits pose ongoing challenges.
Fundamental
The company's financial health is concerning, marked by recent net losses, negative EPS, and a substantial debt burden. While revenue has been relatively stable, profitability remains a significant challenge. The dividend yield appears inconsistent, with a notable reduction in recent years, indicating potential financial strain.
Technical
The stock's recent price action shows a significant decline, trading well below key moving averages. Oscillators suggest continued downward momentum, and support levels are being tested. While some short-term indicators show oversold conditions, the overall trend remains bearish.
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Automotive Aftermarket Trends | 60 |
| Competitive Landscape | 50 |
| E-commerce Integration | 55 |
| DIY vs. Professional Installer Mix | 65 |
| Supply Chain & Logistics | 50 |
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 40 |
| Profitability | 10 |
| Growth | 15 |
| Balance Sheet Health | 30 |
| Cash Flow | 20 |
| Earnings Per Share (EPS) | 5 |
| Dividend Stability | 35 |
| Factor | Score |
|---|---|
| Trend Analysis | 20 |
| Momentum | 45 |
| Volume Confirmation | 50 |
| Support & Resistance | 55 |
| Short-term Oscillators | 40 |
| Price Action | 30 |
AI Investing Checklist
Powered by LiveAIBullish Points (6)
Sequential EPS Improvement
The reported EPS has shown improvement sequentially in the last two quarters (-0.59 in Q1 2024 to -0.22 in Q2 2025), indicating a potential positive trend in profitability.
Increasing Revenue
Despite recent losses, the company has demonstrated increasing annual revenue from 2022 ($9.15B) to 2024 ($9.09B, with Q4 2024 revenue of $1.99B), showing continued market demand.
Bearish Points (8)
Negative EPS and Misses
The company has reported negative EPS in multiple recent quarters (e.g., -0.22 in Q2 2025, -1.18 in Q1 2025) and has missed analyst estimates significantly (e.g., -108.13% surprise in Q4 2024), indicating profitability challenges.
Negative Trailing P/E
The trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is negative (-9.0 TTM), which is typical for companies with net losses and suggests that traditional P/E valuation metrics are not applicable or favorable.
Calendar
July 2025
11
Ex-Dividend Date
July 2025
25
Next Dividend Date
August 2025
14
Next Earnings Date
H: $0.80
A: $0.57
L: $0.25
H: 2.03B
A: 1.97B
L: 1.80B
Profile
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. engages in the provision of automotive aftermarket parts in the United States and internationally. The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wire; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also provides air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluid; electrical wire and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting; performance parts; sealants, adhesives and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors and exterior accessories; washes, waxes and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oil; oil filters; part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluid. Further, it provides battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning and checking; electrical system testing, including batteries, starters, and alternators; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. The company serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. It operates stores under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest names. The company has stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Canada; and independently owned Carquest branded stores in Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. Advance Auto Parts, Inc. was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Seasonals
Price Target
48.96 USD
The 39 analysts offering 1 year price forecasts for AAP have a max estimate of 65.00 and a min estimate of 30.00.
Debt Level and Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Ownership
Capital Structure
Valuation - Summary
Valuation - Ratios
Revenue to Profit Conversion
Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Cash Flow
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